The Housing Market is Absolutely Insane

The current state of the US housing market is astounding, with recent data from Redfin revealing record-breaking trends. As of April 25th, the median home sold price in the US hit an unprecedented high, alongside a surge in average monthly housing payments for potential buyers. Despite a rise in inventory, the situation remains perplexing. Let’s delve into the details and dissect this phenomenon. If you find value in today’s insights, please consider liking and subscribing for regular updates on the housing market.

The median US home sold price soared to an all-time peak of $383,500 compared to the previous year, marking one of the largest increases since October 20122. While most metros witnessed growth, one metro experienced a decline year-over-year. Remarkably, 49 out of the 50 largest metros saw an increase in home prices. Meanwhile, the average weekly mortgage rate climbed to 7.1%, reaching its highest level since November 2023.

Daily rates for individuals with excellent credit also surged, surpassing 7.5%, the highest seen since last November. This uptrend in mortgage rates reflects the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain higher interest rates, driving monthly housing payments to a new pinnacle of $2,843, up by 133% year-over-year. Despite a boost in listings by 10.2%, homeowners are hesitant to sell due to the significant rate hikes.

The increase in inventory seems to be losing momentum, influencing prices to continue their upward trajectory despite more homes being available for sale. However, interpretations vary depending on the data source. While Redfin reports a 10% year-over-year increase,’s recent announcement indicates a staggering 31.7% surge in active listings. Existing home sales also show a notable rise compared to previous years, albeit still lower than pre-pandemic levels.

Analyzing historical patterns, it’s crucial to focus on the rate of inventory growth rather than comparing it to pre-pandemic levels. In 2022, a sudden doubling of inventory led to a sharp decline in home prices. Therefore, monitoring inventory trends in the coming weeks and months is paramount.

Recent findings from Redfin indicate that demand remains resilient despite mortgage rates exceeding 7%. However, signs of a slowdown are emerging, prompting further investigation into early indicators of home buying demand. Pending home sales declined by 3.8%, while new listings increased by 10.2%, albeit slower than the previous month’s gain of 12%.

Examining the performance of the 50 most populous metros, disparities emerge in pending sales and new listings. San Jose, California, leads in both categories, while Austin, Texas, stands out as the only metro experiencing a decline in home prices.

Asking prices nationwide have surged by 6.7%, reaching an all-time high, underscoring the current lack of housing affordability. Despite a slight increase in inventory, the month supply remains at a three-year high, indicating a delicate balance between supply and demand.

In summary, the US housing market is experiencing unprecedented dynamics, characterized by soaring prices, fluctuating mortgage rates, and shifting inventory levels. Understanding these nuances is essential for navigating the complexities of buying and selling homes in today’s market.